2016 Electoral College Map Projections for US Presidential Elections: Clinton Leads; Trump Slightly Behind, But Numbers Improving
Recent poll-based electoral college map projections and predictions for the 2016 presidential elections offer both good and bad news for presumptive nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
It may be a bit too early to accurately predict a winner, but one can start by saying that the numbers aren't looking good for Trump. Forecasts from different sources differ in numbers, but the end results are the same—Hillary Clinton is poised to win if the elections were held today.
Will the Young Supporters of Sanders Go for Hillary?
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An earlier study done by the GenForward Poll (commissioned by the Black Youth Project and the Associated Press) revealed that 50 percent of the respondents who favored Bernie Sanders will likely support Clinton in the November polls against Trump. The other half is divided between not supporting Clinton at all and being unsure of their choice.
Even now that Sanders has officially thrown in his full support to Clinton's presidential bid, the expectation that the young voters' bloc will dramatically add numbers in her favor has yet to become solid.
Numbers Game
Projections from different polling bodies like 270ToWin and Real Clear Politics show the same thing--the Democrat's numbers are higher than the Republican's.
In Freedom's Lighthouse projection of the needed 270 votes to win, Clinton gets 227 while Trump's is at 180. Even with the 131 toss up, the numbers aren't encouraging for the Republicans.
Meanwhile, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Hillary's numbers are up. But Ohio, the state that historically reflects the nation's vote, the two are running neck to neck.
Trump's Numbers Up
There is some good news for Trump though. The Quinnipiac University conducted a swing state poll and arrived at an interesting prediction—Trump's numbers are promising. The numbers showed that in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead of Clinton.
However, the Real Clear Politics Electoral Map predicts:
CLINTON: 209 votes in: (solid) - DE, IL, WA; (leaning) - CO, CT, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OR
TRUMP: 164 (solid) - LA, MT, SD; (leaning) - IN, MS, MO, SC, TX, UT, NE
TOSS UP : 165 AZ, FL, GA, IO, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI, ME
The numbers are bound to change in the coming days leading toward November. Either way, the 2016 election will be one for the books.
