Google+ to Have 400 Million Users by End of 2012?
Google+ is growing fast and may have over 400 million users by the end of 2012, predicts American social network researcher Paul Allen.
The Google’s social networking site that went public in September has reached 62 million users and is adding 625,000 new users a day, Allen, founder of Ancestry.com, says on his Google+ profile page.
“It may be the holidays, the TV commercials, the Android 4 signups, celebrity and brand appeal, or positive word of mouth, or a combination of all these factors, but there is no question that the number of new users signing up for Google+ each day has accelerated markedly in the past several weeks,” says the unofficial Google+ statistician.
Get Our Latest News for FREE
The Global Web Index figures released last week showed that Google+ already had 150 million active users, but Allen’s forecast and prediction will still be taken seriously as his estimates in July were found to be accurate.
Allen’s methodology doesn’t look at actual numbers. His team from recruitment site Elance runs hundreds of queries each week on various surnames it has been tracking since July. But the team revises its model based on the actual user announcements made by Google.
The tracking shows that by Dec. 27 the social network had 62 million users, and Allen’s forecast says Google+ will have 65.8 million users by Jan. 1, 2012, and 85.2 million users by Feb. 1. If the rate of new signups continues then Google+ will reach 100 million users on Feb. 25 and 200 million users on Aug. 3, and as 2012 finishes, it will have 293 million users.
The growth will likely continue to accelerate because 700,000 Android devices, significant source of new users for Google+, are activated daily. The rate of activation is also expected to grow further, Allen says.
“Based on the accelerated growth I’m seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilize, and the developer ecosystem that will be developed, I predict that 2012 is going to be a breakout year for Google+ and that it will end next year with more than 400 million users,” he says.
Facebook has 800 million users, but the anticipated growth acceleration of Google+ indicates a threat to Facebook in the near future.
