2016 Electoral College Map Projections: Clinton or Trump, Who Will Win?
With the final state-level polling results becoming available, there is a consensus projection on who will be our next president among three different polling websites.
Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton is expected to have a considerable electoral victory over Republican Party nominee Donald Trump.
As time is winding down until the votes are cast, Clinton continues to outperform Trump on the projections offered by Real Clear Politics, Polly Vote, and Five Thirty-Eight.
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1. Real Clear Politics
According to the "No Toss-Ups" map of Real Clear Politics accessed Monday afternoon, Clinton is expected to win the election with 301 electoral points compared to Trump's 237.
The Clinton victory includes winning the states of Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, the last of which is the state that vice presidential running mate Tim Kaine represents in the United States Senate.
States that are expected to go for Trump include Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Utah, and Indiana, the last of which is the state where vice presidential running mate Mike Pence serves as governor.
While a strong finish for Clinton, Monday afternoon's electoral college projection gives the Democratic nominee a smaller total than in early September, when at one point Clinton was projected to win 340 electoral points to Trump's 198.
Furthermore, when toss-ups are included, Real Clear Politics has Clinton with just 203 secured electoral points, Trump with 164, and 171 still up for grabs.
States considered toss-ups include Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
2. Polly Vote
As with Real Clear Politics and in keeping with past predictions, Polly Vote gives Clinton the victory come election day, getting 323 electoral points to Trump's 215 electoral points.
Polly Vote's map labels Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia as "Safe Democrat", while labeling North Carolina "Lean Democrat."
In addition, Polly Vote also predicted that Clinton will get 52.6 percent of the popular vote, compared to Trump getting 47.4 percent of the popular vote.
These popular vote totals are very similar to those projected by the election prediction site back in early September, when it gave Clinton 51.5 percent and Trump 48.5 percent.
3. Five Thirty-Eight
As with many past dates, Five Thirty-Eight gives Clinton the best odds of winning the presidential election and expects her to score a considerable electoral college victory.
Accessed Monday afternoon, the site gives Clinton a 68.3 percent chance of winning and gives Trump a 31.6 percent chance of winning.
Five Thirty-Eight predicts that Clinton will receive 297.2 electoral points, Trump will receive 240.1 electoral points, and independent conservative candidate Evan McMullin will receive 0.7 electoral points.
Regarding the popular vote, Clinton is expected to get 48.7 percent, Trump is expected to get 45.3 percent, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is expected to get 4.5 percent, and other hopefuls are expected to get 1.5 percent.
Despite the many upheavals for both major party nominees, their odds of winning according to Five Thirty-Eight have changed little from the early September projection.
At that point in the election season, the site gave Clinton a 71.1 percent chance of winning and Trump a 28.9 percent chance of winning.
