Winds of Winter Release Date: Statistical Projection for Likely Launch Appears Online

By Dondi Tiples, Christian Post Contributor Friday, March 27, 2015

A new statistical analysis has emerged projecting when George R.R. Martin is likely to complete his sixth book "The Winds of Winter" in his "A Song of Fire and Ice" fantasy epic.

With speculations rife on when the sixth installment of "A Song of Fire and Ice" will finally be released, a new scientific projection has come to light detailing a probable timeline for when George R.R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" might see publication.

BryndenBFish, guest feature writer for "GoT" community website Watchers on the Wall, has released a qualitative assessment, complete with tables and graphs, on the American writer's progress, laying down a best-case and worst-case scenario on when the sixth book will finally appear.

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Dating the estimated 1,500-page book chapter by chapter based on information Martin has posted on his LiveJournal's "Not A Blog," BryndenBFish started with the first 100 pages which the author first announced he completed in mid-2010.

Taking into account the author's book tours for "A Dance with Dragons," the projection brings up a total of 200 completed pages by July 2012. With a 168-manuscript pages Martin sent to his editor in February 2013, and his announcement he was "a quarter of the way done" with the book during HBO's season three premiere of "GoT," the projection went up to 375 pages completed by March 2013.

Given the author's glacial progress with "The Winds of Winter," BryndenBFish guesstimates GRRM is currently averaging 17 new pages a month, or 204 pages a year. With that speed in mind, the article's "Super Pessimistic Prediction" pegs an early to mid-2019 publication date.

However, on the other end of the spectrum, if Martin's speed writing "A Dance with Dragons" is any indication, fans should expect the sixth book between late 2016 to early 2017.