Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Latest

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  Jul 10, 2014

  An Above Average Year for Congressional Incumbents

  With the primary season more than half over, it's fair to say that incumbents have done just fine this cycle so far: better than fine, in fact.

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  Jun 12, 2014

  Cantor's Fall and What It Means This Election Cycle

  The Richmond Times-Dispatch called it a "political earthquake." It was the "upset of the century," added Fredericksburg's Free Lance-Star. A powerful, veteran member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Virginia had fallen in a primary to a political upstart.

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  Jun 5, 2014

  McDaniel's 'Friends and Neighbors': The Fallout From Tuesday's Primaries

  Tuesday night featured about as dramatic a race as we've seen in recent years, which not only delighted the political hacks on Twitter but, more importantly, produced a result that suggests a victory for the more conservative wing of the Republican Party.

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  Apr 17, 2014

  The House Retirements That 'Might' Matter in November

  The retirement of Rep. Tom Petri (R, WI-6) means that 41 members of the House are leaving the lower chamber at the end of this Congress in order to either exit public life or run for another office.

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  Apr 3, 2014

  Midterm 2014 Elections: Where Things Stand Now

  Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far.

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  Mar 20, 2014

  2016 GOP Presidential Update: A New Name at the Top

  In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didn't think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.

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  Mar 13, 2014

  The Limited Meaning of Florida's Special House Election

  Rep.-elect David Jolly (R, FL-13) overcame money, some internal division among Republicans, and a name recognition and prestige deficit to defeat Alex Sink (D) in a much-watched special election in Florida's Tampa-area 13th Congressional District Tuesday night.

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  Feb 20, 2014

  Governors Races in 2014: Where Politics Really Is Local

  The 1974 midterm elections represented a perfect storm for Democrats. Not only had President Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace just a few months before November, but Nixon's successor — Gerald Ford — compounded Republican political problems by pardoning his old boss.

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  Feb 13, 2014

  Toward a Perfectly Partisan House in 2014

  After the 2014 election, it's possible — perhaps even likely — that there will be even fewer crossover members of the House. A quick look at the playing field explains why.

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  Dec 20, 2013

  14 for '14: Some Bold Political Predictions for the New Year

  As we wrap up our publishing schedule for 2013, we looked into the Crystal Ball to offer some predictions for next year. While the picture is still a little hazy for the 2014 midterms, we've got some other prognostications related to the political year to come and some hints about what you should expect.