Election 2018 Polls: A Divided Congress?

By Michael Gryboski, Mainline Church Editor Monday, October 15, 2018

Senate

Following the confirmation battle over Judge Brett Kavanaugh, Senate Republicans have jumped ahead in the polls since last week.

In their "Senate No Toss Ups 2018" map, accessed Tuesday, RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans would have 53 seats to the Democrats' 47.

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This is an increase from last week, when RCP predicted that the GOP would have 51 seats and the Democrats 49, as well as the week before, when the map predicted a 50-50 split.

FiveThirtyEight's model, updated Monday morning, gives the Republicans a 79.8 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, while giving the Democrats a 20.3 percent chance of gaining control.

This is a very slight change from last week, when the model gave Republicans a 79.2 percent chance of keeping control and the Democrats a 20.8 percent chance of gaining control.