7 people who wrongly predicted Kamala Harris victory

By Michael Gryboski, Editor Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Allan Lichtman

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a visit to Minnesota on March 14, 2024. Behind her is Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom she recently named as her vice presidential running mate. | Public Domain/Office of Governor Walz & Lt. Governor Flanagan

Historian Allan Lichtman, an American University professor known for having successfully predicted nine out of the last 10 presidential elections (2000 being the one he got wrong), said that Harris would win.

Lichtman listed “13 Keys” to winning the race, which included economic strength, third party challenge, incumbency, “social unrest,” scandals, successes or failures in foreign policy, and charisma.

“If six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, the incumbent is expected to win,” noted American University when announcing his prediction in September. “Lichtman found that eight of the keys are true (in Harris’ favor), while three are false, favoring Trump.”

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States, at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” said Lichtman, as quoted by the university.

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