3 takeaways from the midterm exit polls

3. GOP loses support from parents, men and women

Amid concerns about inflation and cost of living, parents played a decisive role in Trump’s 2024 victory. A majority of parents with children under 18 living at home (53%) supported Trump in 2024, with an even larger majority of men with children (59%) backing the president.

In 2026, with a lot of those same concerns persisting, a majority of parents (54%) supported Democratic candidates. The GOP's support among men with children fell by 10 points to 49%, while its support among women with children fell 9 points to 38%.

Parents also made up a smaller share of the electorate in 2026 (23%) than in 2024 (27%).

Male voters, also an important part of the Republican coalition, moved left between 2024 and 2026. Exit polls show Democrats winning 50% of the male vote in 2026, while Trump won 55% in 2024. Democrats’ share of the female vote, an important part of their coalition, increased from 53% two years ago to 59% this year.

Democrats dominated among college graduates in both 2026 (63%) and 2024 (56%), and a higher share of voters without a college degree backed Democrats in 2026 (48%) than in 2024 (43%). Republican support among whites without a college degree, a crucial part of the Republican coalition, dropped from 66% for Trump in 2024 to 60% in 2026.