Election 2018 Polls: Democrats More Likely to Take House, but Not Senate

By Michael Gryboski, Mainline Church Editor Monday, October 22, 2018

House

The Democrats' chances of regaining control of the House of Representatives have increased considerably compared to last week, according to FiveThirtyEight.

In data updated on Monday, the site gave Democrats an 86.3 percent chance of regaining control of the House, versus a 13.7 percent chance that Republicans will retain.

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This represents a 5-percent increase for the Democrats compared to last week, with FiveThirtyEight giving them an 80 percent chance that the Democratic Party will gain at least 20 seats and a 10 percent chance they will gain more than 62.

RealClearPolitics' "Battle for the House 2018" map, accessed Monday, gave Democrats 205 seats, Republicans 199 seats, and listed 31 as "toss-ups."

This is a slight decrease for the Republicans from last week, when RCP had them with 200 seats, but still larger than four weeks ago, when RCP had them with 189 seats.