Isaias slated to make landfall as first major hurricane of 2026

Hurricane Isaias is expected to make U.S. landfall as the first major hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with heavy rainfall and storm surge forecast for the Gulf Coast.

Isaias is anticipated to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast as a major hurricane, with winds of more than 110 mph, Friday night or early Saturday morning. It is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm Saturday morning and become a post-tropical cyclone centered over Alabama by Saturday evening. On Sunday, the storm’s remnants are expected to move through Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia, as well as parts of Virginia and Ohio.

The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast advisory shows a hurricane warning in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the line between Florida’s Bay and Gulf counties.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Jefferson-Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana to just west of Ocean Springs, and from the Bay-Gulf county line east to the Aucilla River in Florida.

Much of the damage from Isaias is expected to come from storm surge. According to the National Hurricane Center, storm surge causes “normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.” Peak surge of 6 to 9 feet is projected from the Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach, Florida, while the stretch from Grayton Beach to Indian Pass, Florida, could see 4 to 7 feet.

A surge of 4 to 6 feet is possible from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Alabama-Florida border, and along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River. The area from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island — including the entire Mississippi Gulf Coast — could see peak surge of 3 to 5 feet, as could Lower Mobile Bay in Alabama and the Florida Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River.

Peak surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible in Upper Mobile Bay and along the Florida Gulf Coast from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. Surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible from Yankeetown to Egmont Key, Florida, and in Louisiana’s Lake Pontchartrain. The Louisiana coast from Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River could see 1 to 2 feet.

Beyond the storm surge along the Gulf Coast, Isaias is expected to bring substantial rainfall to much of the southern U.S.

The heaviest rain is expected to stay offshore, but isolated areas of the Florida Panhandle could see 8 to 12 inches. Totals of 6 to 8 inches are expected in the northwesternmost part of the Florida Panhandle, the area around the state capital of Tallahassee and a small sliver of south central Alabama.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected in most of south central Alabama, the easternmost part of the Alabama Gulf Coast, much of the Florida Panhandle, most of the North Carolina coast, much of the northern South Carolina coast, southwest Georgia through the center of the state to just outside Atlanta and isolated pockets of western North Carolina.

Most of northeastern Mississippi, most of Alabama, parts of north central Florida, most of Georgia, including Atlanta and the coast, eastern and western South Carolina, eastern and west central North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and other pockets of Virginia, and isolated areas of south central Tennessee could see 2 to 4 inches.

Lighter totals of 1 to 2 inches are projected for most of eastern Mississippi; the southwest corner of Alabama, including Mobile; most of northern and east central Alabama; most of northwest and southeast Georgia; southern Tennessee; most of North Carolina, including Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham; most of Virginia outside the southwest; and parts of central Kentucky.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has declared a state of emergency for 27 counties. Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, also a Republican, has declared a state of emergency for 40 counties that will remain in effect through Wednesday unless the governor’s office announces otherwise.

Isaias arrives four months into the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Until Isaias, the season had produced only tropical storms, which have lower wind speeds than hurricanes. Only three of the season’s nine named storms have made landfall in the U.S.; Isaias is projected to become the fourth.