White Evangelicals backing GOP midterm candidates, but other religious groups favor Democrats: Pew poll

White Evangelical Protestants are the only religious subgroup in which President Donald Trump has majority support, as most religious demographics are slated to vote for Democratic candidates in the midterms. 

The Pew Research Center released new data Tuesday documenting Americans’ views on the midterm elections based on responses collected from 5,062 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters, from Sept. 28 through Oct. 4. The data broke down voting intentions for the midterms and Trump’s approval rating by religious affiliation. 

Overall, 44% of registered voters plan to support the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district, while 36% intend to back the Republican candidate. This finding closely mirrors the RealClearPolitics average of polls asking voters which party they want to control Congress, where Democrats also have a lead of 8 percentage points. The Pew poll is one of several surveys included in the polling average. 

According to Pew, 49% of Protestant voters plan to back the Republican candidate for the House, while 32% intend to support the Democratic candidate. Support for the Republican candidate rises to 73% among white Evangelical Protestants, with just 12% of the religious subgroup planning to vote for the Democratic candidate. Forty-five percent of white non-Evangelical Protestants plan to vote Republican in the midterms compared to 37% who say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. 

The overwhelming majority of black Protestants (74%) plan to vote Democratic in the midterms, while just 6% intend to cast their ballot for a Republican. Catholics are nearly evenly divided in the midterms, with 42% planning to vote Democratic and 39% intending to support the Republican candidate.

Support for the Republican candidate rises to 50% among white Catholics while support for the Democrat drops to 32%. A majority of Hispanic Catholics (59%) plan to vote Democratic in the midterms compared to 19% who intend to back Republican candidates. 

Majorities of atheists (81%), agnostics (75%) and the religiously unaffiliated (61%) plan to vote Democratic in the midterms, along with a plurality of voters who identify as nothing in particular (48%). Support for Republicans among these subgroups was measured at 9%, 13%, 17% and 22%, respectively.

Like many other polls, the Pew Research Center poll shows Trump with a very low overall approval rating among U.S. adults, measured at just 30%. By contrast, 68% of adults disapprove of his job performance. Pew has the lowest overall approval for Trump of all the polls in the RealClearPolitics database, with the average pegging his overall approval rating at 38.8% and his overall disapproval rating at 59.2%. An AP-NORC poll also found 30% approval and 68% disapproval, Crux reported.

The Pew poll found that white Evangelical Protestants were the only religious subgroup where a majority of adherents approve of Trump’s job performance. Fifty-eight percent of white Evangelical Protestants approve of his job performance compared to 40% who disapprove. That is down from 78% in January and February 2025. Among white Catholics, approval fell from 59% to 39% over the same period.

Only 39% of Protestants as a whole approve of Trump’s job performance while 58% disapprove. A similar share of white non-Evangelical Protestants both approve (38%) and disapprove (60%) of Trump’s job performance. The overwhelming majority of black Protestants (90%) disapprove of Trump’s job performance while only 7% approve. 

Trump’s overall approval rating among Catholic adults is 30% while his disapproval rating is 67%. Among Catholics, his approval rating is strongest among white Catholics, with 39% approving of his job performance and 59% disapproving. The overwhelming majority of Hispanic Catholics (78%) disapprove of Trump’s job performance. By contrast, his approval rating among the religious demographic is just 18%. 

Large majorities of atheists (92%), agnostics (87%), religiously unaffiliated adults (82%) and adults who identify as nothing in particular (77%) disapprove of Trump’s job performance. By contrast, approval among these groups was measured at 8% among atheists, 12% among agnostics, 17% among the religiously unaffiliated and 21% among those who do not identify with any particular religion.

Pew notes that the approval figures cover all adults, not just registered voters, and that many registered voters are not expected to vote. About 46% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2022 midterms.

In this year’s midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House are on the ballot along with 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. The outcome of this year’s midterm elections is expected to impact the final two years of Trump’s presidency. While a Democratic victory would severely hamper his ability to enact his preferred agenda into law, a Republican victory in one or both chambers would result in the president clashing with the legislative branch less frequently.