Iran will get what it wants
After several months of intense negotiations, it’s looking more and more unlikely that an agreement will be reached as the U.S. attempts to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal. The talks have reached a stalemate over a couple of key sticking points.
One is that Iran demanded that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be removed from the U.S.’s Foreign Terrorist Organizations list. Because the IRGC is a proven organizer and executor of terrorist activities that have killed many people — going as far back as the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. military servicemen — the U.S. has balked.
Another is that the U.S. asked Iran to stop seeking vengeance for the assassination of IRGC commander Qassem Solemaini in January 2020. Iran refuses.
Though the prospects of an agreement look dim, Iran holds the winning hand regardless of what happens next.
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Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov has publicly boasted about how the Iranian negotiators are getting everything they want. In an interview, he said, “They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule, very successfully … Iran got much more than it could expect. Much more … Iran got more than frankly I expected, others expected. This is a matter of fact.” He then added, “Our Chinese friends were also very efficient and useful as co-negotiators. We could rely on each other on many, many points.”
What’s more, the severe economic sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Iran in an effort to punish the ruling mullahs are having a diminished impact. Iran’s growing relationships with Russia and China have provided it with abundant opportunities for trade and much-needed cash. In March 2021, Iran and China committed to a 25-year agreement in which China will pour $400 billion into infrastructure projects in Iran in exchange for oil.
The U.S. White House, in the meantime, would see a renewed agreement as a much-needed foreign policy win — especially after the disastrous exit from Afghanistan in August 2021. The U.S. abandoned a $1 billion embassy, $300 million in improvements to Bagram Air Base, and $7 billion in military weapons and supplies. For the U.S. to leave so recklessly and make possible a Taliban takeover of the country has made allies wonder about the likelihood that the U.S. will jettison, without advance warning, other overseas military and diplomatic commitments too.
As for the nuclear talks, Iran has little motivation to be restrained by an agreement anyway. As confirmed by the U.N., it has already violated a previous version of this agreement. And the White House has stated it is concerned that Iran may be very close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Either the U.S. caves and gives Iran what it wants, or Iran walks and does what it wants.
All along, Iran has ensured the U.S. administration ends up with a losing hand. And this has left the world with a more dangerous Middle East.
Steve Miller is the author of the forthcoming book Foreshadows: 12 Megaclues That Jesus’ Return Is Nearer Than Ever, which will become available May 10, 2022. His Foreshadows Report podcasts can be accessed at https://stevemillerresources.com/, and he can be followed daily on Telegram Messenger at https://t.me/ForeshadowsReport.
