5 things to know about elections this fall that could change the balance of power

1. New Jersey’s gubernatorial election

New Jersey’s Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited and unable to seek a third term. Therefore, voters in the Garden State will elect a new governor this fall. The Democratic nominee is Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., while the Republican nominee is Jack Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost the 2021 gubernatorial election to Murphy four years ago. 

The RealClearPolitics average of polls for the New Jersey gubernatorial race taken since Sept. 22 shows Sherrill capturing 48.1% of the vote while pegging Ciattarelli’s support at 44%, amounting to a lead of 4.1 percentage points for Sherrill. If Sherrill wins the governorship, she will have to vacate her seat in Congress. 

The district represented by Sherrill, New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, backed Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election by nearly 9 percentage points. In the event of a Sherrill victory, the vacant seat will be filled by a special election. 

New Jersey voters will also decide which party controls the New Jersey General Assembly, which will see all 80 of its seats up for grabs in this year’s election. Democrats currently control the chamber as well as the New Jersey Senate, where members are not up for re-election until 2027.