5 things to know about elections this fall that could change the balance of power

4. California’s redistricting referendum

While the midterm elections that will determine the makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives for the final two years of Republican Donald Trump’s presidency are still a year away, a recently scheduled referendum could have an impact on the makeup of the districts candidates are running in.

The state’s Democrat-dominated Legislature has approved a ballot measure that would ask voters to set aside the maps created by the state’s independent redistricting commission and replace it with a map drawn by Democrats to be more favorable to their party. 

The move is justified by California leaders as necessary in light of Texas’ Republican-controlled Legislature implementing new congressional districts that are designed to be more favorable to the Republican Party. If approved, the California congressional delegation could go from a 43-9 breakdown between Democrats and Republicans to at least a 46-6 breakdown, and the Democrats could end up winning as many as 48 of the 52 seats. 

The most recent poll shows voters are inclined to approve the new maps. A survey of 900 registered voters conducted by Emerson College from Oct. 20-21 pegged support for new maps at 57% while measuring opposition to the mid-decade redistricting at 37%. 

On the other hand, a survey of 1,445 California registered voters conducted by the Citrin Center for Public Opinion, the Possibility Lab at UC Berkeley, Politico and TrueDot from July 28-Aug. 12 found that 64% of voters favored keeping the independent redistricting commission, while 36% backed returning the authority to draw congressional districts to the state Legislature.