5 things to know about the redistricting battle in Texas and beyond

4. Democrat-led states seek to counter Texas' effort 

As the threat of Republicans winning additional seats because of redistricting looms large for Democrats, many have begun to fight back.

California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom put a constitutional amendment before voters last fall that would ask them to approve congressional maps drawn by California Democrats to be more favorable to their party. Currently, Democrats represent 43 of California’s 52 congressional districts. 

The current districts were drawn by an independent commission, as mandated by California law. Newsom indicated that he still supports the commission and that the new legislature-drawn maps would merely be a temporary response to the mid-decade redistricting elsewhere. He told reporters that he supports returning the responsibility to draw congressional districts to the independent commission at the time of the 2030 U.S. census and all subsequent U.S. censuses. 

The Democrat-controlled California Assembly released a new congressional map designed to favor Democrats, which passed the California Senate in a 30-8 vote and the California Assembly in a 57-20 vote. California voters approved Proposition 50, which would result in the enactment of the new congressional map, last November. 

A Google spreadsheet analyzing the results of the 2024 presidential election in the old and new congressional districts created by the political blog The Downballot shows that the new map transforms three of the nine seats currently held by Republicans into districts that backed Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits in the 2024 presidential election: California’s 1st District, California’s 3rd District and California’s 41st District.

California’s 48th District, which backed Trump by double digits under the current lines, transforms into a seat that backed Harris by 4 percentage points last year. California’s 22nd District will see Trump’s margin of victory drop from 6 percentage points to 2 percentage points.

The map seems designed to ensure at least a 46-6 split in favor of Democrats in California’s congressional delegation while making a 48-4 split possible in a good year for Democrats. Under the new map, the four remaining Republican-held districts backed Trump by double digits. 

Maryland’s Democratic House of Delegates Majority Leader David Moon announced in an X post on July 22 that he intended to introduce legislation that would “redraw Maryland congressional districts if any other state cheats [and] draws new maps outside of the census period.” Moon added that if Maryland’s Democratic Gov. Wes Moore did not submit a proposal for new congressional districts, the state’s Democrat-controlled Legislature would create and pass their own map.

Under the current map, Democrats represent seven of Maryland’s eight congressional districts. The Democrat-controlled Maryland House of Delegates passed legislation this week that would lead to a new map where all eight districts would favor Democrats. As explained by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, under the new map, the Republican-held 1st Congressional District would transform from a district that favored Trump by nearly 17 points in 2024 to one that backed Harris by nearly 14 points. 

Six of the remaining seven districts would have also backed Harris by double digits. Only one district on the new map, Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District, would have supported Harris by less than 10 points. Since it backed Harris by 8.6 percentage points, the district would still be likely to favor Democrats in most years. The measure is not expected to come up for a vote in the Democrat-controlled Maryland Senate due to opposition from Senate President Bill Ferguson, making the new congressional map unlikely to become law. 

In Virginia, lawmakers approved sending a ballot measure to voters this spring that would enable the creation of a new congressional map for the next three election cycles. Virginia Democrats released the new map, which is designed to elect 10 Democrats and one Republican, Thursday. The current Virginia map consists of six districts represented by Democrats and five districts represented by Republicans. 

Data compiled by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows that the Republican-held Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District would see the smallest change: transforming from a district that backed Trump by 0.3 percentage points to one that would have favored Harris by 1.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Republican-held Virginia’s 1st Congressional District would go from a district that supported Trump by 4.9 percentage points to one that backed Harris by 7.5 percentage points. 

Two districts that backed Trump by double digits in 2024, Virginia’s 5th Congressional District and Virginia’s 6th Congressional District, would become districts that backed Harris by 8.5 points and 3.1 points, respectively. While the implementation of a new congressional map in Virginia is contingent upon approval from voters, the measure has been struck down by a state court on procedural grounds. The Virginia Supreme Court is slated to issue a final ruling on the matter.