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Election 2018 Polls: Will Republicans Lose the Senate?

By Michael Gryboski, Editor

Senate

A Senate election prediction map by RealClearPolitics, accessed Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
A Senate election prediction map by RealClearPolitics, accessed Monday, Oct. 1, 2018. | (Screenshot: realclearpolitics.com)

There appears to be two different political prediction perspectives emerging among sites that specialize in analyzing data on the future makeup of Congress.

In their "Senate No Toss Ups 2018" map, accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans and Democrats would each have 50 seats. This would make Vice President Mike Pence even more of a crucial tie-breaker for the GOP's agenda items.

This is a decline from last month, when RCP's map predicted that the Republicans would maintain a 52-seat majority with Democrats having 48.

However, FiveThirtyEight's model, updated Monday morning, gives the GOP a 71.2 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, while giving the DNC a 28.8 percent chance of gaining control.

The Republicans' chances of maintaining control is an increase from both last week, when FiveThirtyEight gave them a 68.8 percent chance, and two weeks ago, when the site gave them a 66.1 percent chance.

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