Red states vs. blue states: Who will gain seats after the next Census

By Ryan Foley, Christian Post Reporter Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Newly released population estimates for the United States show that red states are projected to gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Electoral College following the 2030 U.S. Census, while blue states are expected to lose seats. 

The U.S. Census Bureau released 2025 population estimates for the U.S. and each of the 50 states Tuesday, which found the U.S. population grew by 0.5% from 2024 to 2025.

“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau. 

“With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today,” she added. 

While mid-decade population estimates have no impact on the distribution of seats in the U.S. House or votes in the Electoral College, Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University has prepared an estimate on the number of seats each state will have in the U.S. House after the 2030 U.S. Census, based on the newly released estimates.

Cervas’ model predicts that two of the largest states will continue to see their representation in the U.S. House increase: Florida and Texas are each projected to gain four seats. This would bring Florida’s number of House seats up to 32 from 28, and give Texas 42 seats, an increase from 38. 

Since both states have backed the Republican candidate in the most recent presidential elections, the projected population figures would yield eight additional Electoral College votes for the GOP beginning in the 2032 election.  

Five additional states would see their representation in the U.S. House increase by one seat: Arizona’s number of House seats would rise from nine to 10, Georgia would gain a 15th seat, Idaho’s congressional delegation would increase from two to three seats, North Carolina would have 15 seats, an increase from 14, and Utah’s representation in the House will grow from four to five seats.  

Idaho and Utah are reliably Republican in presidential elections, and their increased representation in the Electoral College means that GOP presidential candidates will have two additional Electoral College votes to count on. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina were all swing states in the 2024 presidential election, meaning that their three extra Electoral College votes will be sought after by both political parties beginning in 2032. 

Meanwhile, California would lose four seats in the U.S. House, bringing its delegation down from 52 to 48. Another large state in the U.S., New York, would lose two seats in the U.S. House, bringing its total down from 26 to 24. 

Illinois would also lose seats, with its congressional delegation projected to shrink from 17 to 15. Both Minnesota and Wisconsin would lose a seat, with their congressional representation dropping from eight to seven.

Rhode Island would also lose a seat, bringing its total down to just one. Oregon would also see its number of seats in the U.S. House decrease, from six to five. Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation would fall to 16 seats from 17. 

Two of the states projected to lose seats, Pennsylvania and Michigan, are swing states in presidential elections, while the remainder have voted for Democratic candidates in the last three presidential elections.

Based on the most recent projections, Democrats will start off with 11 fewer Electoral College votes, Republicans will start off with 10 more Electoral College votes and the swing states will be worth one more electoral vote come 2032. 

If the projected map were in place for the 2024 presidential election, President Donald Trump would have received 324 electoral votes instead of 313, while Democrat Kamala Harris would have won 214 electoral votes rather than 225.