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Election 2018 Polls: Democrats More Likely to Take House, but Not Senate

By Michael Gryboski, Editor Twitter

Senate

A Senate election prediction map by RealClearPolitics, accessed Monday, Oct. 22, 2018.
A Senate election prediction map by RealClearPolitics, accessed Monday, Oct. 22, 2018. | (SCREENSHOT: REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM)

In their "Senate No Toss Ups 2018" map, accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans would have 53 seats to the Democrats' 47.

These is the exact number reported by RCP last week, but remains an improvement for Republicans compared to earlier this month, when RCP predicted a 50-50 split.

FiveThirtyEight's model, updated Monday, gives the Republicans a 78.1 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, while giving the Democrats a 21.9 percent chance of gaining control.

These numbers are similar to past weeks and are likely impacted by the fact that 42 of the GOP's seats are not up for election this year, in contrast to 23 of the Democrats' seats not being up for election.

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