Why the drop in trans identity isn’t the cultural victory we think it is

A new cultural narrative is circulating: young Americans are “turning away” from trans, non-binary and other queer identities.

According to Eric Kaufmann’s report, “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans,” the share of college students identifying as a gender other than male or female dropped from 6.8 % in 2023 to 3.6% in 2025.  

On its surface, the numbers seem to reinforce the idea that identity categories were once a trend and are now collapsing. But before we treat this as a cultural win, we need to ask: what kind of identity was this? And what is the underlying story behind the statistics? 

After I read about this, I saw an X post by Kim Jones responding to an allegation by Ari Drennan, which claimed that a student was “kicked off” a women’s sports team for being trans and implied that it caused the student’s suicide. (Ari wrote an article saying that the student quit after his Freshman year and thus was not kicked off the team in spite of his earlier social post.) 

Kim’s response condemned Ari for using a tragedy to emotionally blackmail women into surrendering privacy and fairness in sports, and I agree with her critique: tragedy should never be a weapon to hit people with.  

But I also want to press deeper. Because what both hint at is a broader issue: identity itself. 

Kaufmann notes that part of the decline comes from improved mental health among young people, but he also highlights a broader cultural shift. The rapid rise in LGBT identification over the last decade was fueled in large part by peer influence and political fashion, and now that surge appears to be receding. Taken together, these trends suggest that shifts in self-identification reflect cultural currents more than lasting self-discovery, especially when layered on top of fragile mental health. 

This raises a deeper question. Why should culture be the force that tells kids who they are in something as fundamental as gender? If acceptance alone brought peace, then belonging to clubs, sports teams or friend groups would be enough. Instead, many young people are pushed into adopting identities that don’t ultimately resolve their struggles. The persistently high rates of attempted suicide among trans and non-binary youth make clear that external affirmation does not automatically lead to inner stability or peace. 

When identity is built on self-identification or cultural categories, it becomes unstable. If one’s sense of self depends on the category itself (trans, non-binary, queer), rather than on something deeper, then shifts in culture, affirmation or data will ripple into one’s inner life. The Kaufmann report may show a decline in certain identity labels, but it doesn’t show a surge in stable well-being or a firm replacement identity. 

For Christians, the anchor lies deeper: identity rooted in being made in the image of God (Genesis 1:27), being a child of God (John 1:12), becoming new in Christ (2 Corinthians 5:17). That identity doesn’t rise and fall with cultural trends. 

If the narrative is “identity labels are dropping so we must have turned the culture around,” we risk celebrating too early and we risk missing the root issue. A sporting story or a social post may highlight a conflict of rights, but it is ultimately about identity, belonging, stability and purpose. 

Women’s fairness in sports, the mental health of young people, and institutional policies all matter. But they are downstream from identity questions. If we don’t provide an anchor for identity that withstands cultural shifts, then even a decline in one label doesn’t guarantee well-being. 

So, what do we do? 

• Avoid using tragedy as leverage. Emotional blackmail, whether in sports, identity politics, or media, corrodes trust. 

• Recognize that belonging to a group is not the same as being fully anchored in identity. 

• Ask the deeper question: What provides your identity stability in a changing world? 

• Offer a foundation that does not depend on shifting categories, but on eternal truth. 

The Kaufmann report may or may not reflect a long-term decline in certain identity labels, and the tragic death of the student does not force us to affirm identity not rooted in truth. What it does underscore is that identity, culture and belonging are deeply entwined and that without a firm anchor, the human soul remains vulnerable. 

If we’re going to talk about identity, let’s talk about it with clarity, compassion and truth.