4 things to know about the 2026 midterm elections
1. US House of Representatives
As is the case every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election. The RealClearPolitics average of the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they want to control Congress, shows Democrats capturing 50.2% of the vote to the Republicans’ 42.4%. This represents a 7.8 percentage-point lead for Democrats.
This number, combined with Trump’s underwater net approval rating of 20.8 percentage points overall and 29.5 percentage points on the economy, as well as the razor-thin Republican majority in the House, suggests that Democrats are favored to take control of the House. However, the outcome of the House races is not determined by a national popular vote but by individual races in each of the 435 congressional districts.
The makeup of several districts will change ahead of the 2026 elections due to mid-decade redistricting. Texas was the first state to redistrict, implementing a new map of congressional districts designed to increase Republicans’ advantage in the state’s congressional delegation from 25-13 to 30-8.
In response to the redistricting in Texas, California voters approved Proposition 50, which allows for the implementation of a new congressional map designed to increase the number of Democrat-held seats in the state’s congressional delegation from 43 to 47 or 48.
Missouri, North Carolina and Tennessee have also implemented new congressional maps, each seeking to create an additional seat for Republicans. However, the Missouri Supreme Court issued an opinion on Sept. 3 ordering the state not to use its new congressional map for the 2026 elections due to a pending referendum over the new districts in the state. If approved by voters, the new map will go into effect ahead of the 2028 elections.
Additional redistricting has taken place in Florida, where a new map is designed to make four Democrat-held seats more favorable to Republicans. Meanwhile, a court ruling forced the state of Utah to redraw its congressional map to include a heavily Democratic district. In Ohio, a new map approved by the bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission makes two Democrat-held congressional districts more favorable to Republicans while making a third more favorable to Democrats.
Both parties and their leaders have unfavorable approval ratings heading into Election Day. According to RealClearPolitics, 38.8% of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, while 55.5% have an unfavorable opinion of the GOP. Meanwhile, 39.5% of Americans hold a favorable opinion of Democrats while 53.8% view the party unfavorably.
As for the congressional leaders hoping to lead their parties to victory in November, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has a favorability rating 8.3 points underwater. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who hopes to become Speaker of the House following this year’s elections, has a favorability rating 9.7 points underwater.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has a favorability rating 13.8 points underwater, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is 20 points underwater with the American public.
Ryan Foley is a reporter for The Christian Post. He can be reached at: ryan.foley@christianpost.com
