4 things to know about the 2026 midterm elections
2. US Senate
Thirty-five of the 100 U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot this year. While regularly scheduled elections will take place in 33 seats, two special elections will be held to finish the unexpired terms of two former U.S. senators who resigned to join the Trump administration: Vice President J.D. Vance’s former Senate seat in Ohio and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s former Senate seat in Florida.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats while Democrats hold 47. Democrats need to flip four seats to secure a majority. All but two of the Republican-held Senate seats are located in states that Trump won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election, meaning that Democrats would have to win at least two races in such states while flipping both of the Republican-held seats viewed as the most competitive and holding all of their own seats in order to take control of the Senate.
In North Carolina, the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat in a swing state this year, the RealClearPolitics average of polls documenting voter sentiments in the race between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley shows Cooper leading by an average of 9 percentage points. Cooper leads with 49.8% support to Whatley’s 40.8%.
In Maine, the only state won by Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election where a Republican senator is up for re-election, the RealClearPolitics average of polls of the race between Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson shows Jackson leading by 0.7 percentage points.
In the race to finish Vance’s unexpired term in Ohio, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted trails his Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown by 3.2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average.
In Texas, James Talarico was selected as the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate seat while Attorney General Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee. Talarico leads Paxton by 3.1 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. The RealClearPolitics average of polls testing the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat shows Republican nominee Mike Rogers trailing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed by 3.4 percentage points.
The RealClearPolitics average for the open seat in New Hampshire, narrowly carried by Harris in 2024, shows Democratic nominee Chris Pappas beating Republican challenger John Sununu by 5.9 percentage points. In Georgia, the RealClearPolitics average shows Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., beating Republican challenger Mike Collins by 7.8 percentage points. In the race to finish Rubio’s unexpired term in Florida, appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads her Democratic rival Angie Nixon by 6 percentage points.
In the open Senate race in Iowa, the RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Republican Ashley Hinson trailing Democrat Josh Turek by 0.7 percentage points. In the open Senate race in Minnesota, Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya by 1.6 percentage points. In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, trails his Democratic challenger Mary Peltola by 1.8 percentage points.
In Kansas, the polling average shows Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, leading his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton by 0.2 percentage points. In South Carolina, appointed Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, R-S.C., leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 2.4 percentage points.
Republican-held seats in the deep-red states of Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming are not expected to be heavily contested.
Similarly, Democrat-held seats in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island and Virginia are seen as safe holds for the incumbent party.
Ryan Foley is a reporter for The Christian Post. He can be reached at: ryan.foley@christianpost.com
