5 things to know about the 2026 midterm elections
2. US Senate
Thirty-five of the 100 U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot this year. While regularly scheduled elections will take place in 33 seats, two special elections will be held to finish the unexpired terms of two former U.S. senators who resigned to join the Trump administration: Vice President J.D. Vance’s former Senate seat in Ohio and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s former Senate seat in Florida.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats while Democrats hold 47. Democrats need to flip four seats to secure a majority. All but two of the Republican-held Senate seats are located in states that Trump won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election, meaning that Democrats would have to win at least two races in such states while flipping both of the Republican-held seats viewed as the most competitive and holding all of their own seats in order to take control of the Senate.
In North Carolina, the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat in a swing state this year, the RealClearPolitics average of polls documenting voter sentiments in the expected race between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley shows Cooper leading by an average of 8.6 percentage points. Cooper leads with 46.6% support to Whatley’s 38%.
In Maine, the only state won by Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, where a Republican senator is up for re-election, the RealClearPolitics average of polls of a race between Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and potential Democratic challenger Graham Platner shows Platner leading by 2.5 percentage points.
In the RealClearPolitics average of a hypothetical matchup between Collins and potential Democratic challenger Janet Mills, Collins leads by 2 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average measuring voter preferences in the Democratic primary shows Mills leading by 2 percentage points.
In the race to finish Vance’s unexpired term in Ohio, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted leads his likely Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown by 1 percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average.
The only poll of the Florida Senate race between appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody and Democratic challenger Jennifer Jenkins shows Moody leading by 11 percentage points.
In Texas, both parties face competitive primaries.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, leads potential Democratic challengers James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett by 3 and 5.5 percentage points, respectively. Ken Paxton, who narrowly leads in the Republican primary with a runoff all but certain, leads Talarico and Crockett by 1.5 and 1 percentage point, respectively. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, a third Republican candidate, beats Talarico and Crockett by 4.5 and 5 percentage points, respectively.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls testing hypothetical matchups in the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat shows likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers leading possible Democratic challenger Haley Stevens by 1.8 percentage points, potential Democratic challenger Mallory McMorrow by 4 percentage points and possible Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed by 7.7 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average of the Democratic primary shows Stevens at 26.5% support, followed by McMorrow at 24.5% and El-Sayed at 18%.
The RealClearPolitics average for the open seat in New Hampshire, narrowly carried by Harris in 2024, shows likely Democratic nominee Chris Pappas beating possible Republican challenger John Sununu by 3.6 percentage points and possible Republican challenger Scott Brown by 9.3 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average of the Republican primary shows Sununu leading by 16.3 percentage points.
In Georgia, the RealClearPolitics average shows Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., beating potential Republican challengers Mike Collins, Buddy Carter and Derek Dooley by 2.3 percentage points, 3.6 percentage points and 6 percentage points, respectively. The RealClearPolitics average of the Republican primary shows Collins at 27.5%, Carter at 19% and Dooley at 12%.
Republican-held seats in the deep-red states of Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming are not expected to be heavily contested.
Similarly, Democrat-held seats in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island and Virginia are seen as safe holds for the incumbent party.
Ryan Foley is a reporter for The Christian Post. He can be reached at: ryan.foley@christianpost.com
